The schedule
The federal Cheaper Home Batteries Program was designed to step down each year as battery technology gets cheaper and more households adopt. The rate is based on $/kWh of usable battery capacity, applied at the point of sale.
Indicative federal rate schedule (verify against energy.gov.au - rates change):
- 2026: ~$372/kWh - full rebate, what most homeowners are claiming today
- 2027: ~$330/kWh (~11% step down)
- 2028: ~$285/kWh (~14% step down)
- 2029: ~$240/kWh (~16% step down)
- 2030: ~$200/kWh (final year)
- 2031+: Federal rebate ends (scheme designed to sunset)
What this looks like in dollars
For a typical 13.5 kWh battery install, the federal rebate alone:
- 2026: $5,022
- 2027: $4,455 - you'd lose $567
- 2028: $3,848 - you'd lose $1,174
- 2029: $3,240 - you'd lose $1,782
- 2030: $2,700 - you'd lose $2,322
So waiting from 2026 to 2027 costs about $570. Waiting to 2028 costs $1,174. Waiting to 2030 costs over $2,300.
Does the WA state rebate also step down?
The WA Residential Battery Rebate caps are fixed - $5,000 (Synergy) and $7,500 (Horizon) regardless of which year you install. But the scheme is capped at 100,000 households, on a first-come, first-served basis. Once it hits the cap, no more state rebate even if the year hasn't ended.
So the WA rebate's risk is volume, not timing. The federal rebate's risk is purely timing.
When does waiting actually make sense?
Three scenarios where waiting 12 months is justified:
1. Battery prices drop faster than the rebate
Lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) cell costs have been dropping 6–10% per year. If installed battery prices drop more than the rebate step-down - i.e. prices drop >11% - you'd be ahead waiting. Watch installer pricing trends; in 2025 prices were stable but new entrants are pressuring 2026 prices.
2. You don't have solar yet
Installing solar + battery together saves $1,000–$1,500 on shared labour. If you don't have solar yet, the right move is to install both at once - even if that means waiting until you can do the bundled job.
3. The right battery model isn't on the SAA list yet
A specific battery model you want (e.g. a brand-new Sigenergy Sigenstor or a higher-capacity Powerwall variant) might not be on the SAA approved list yet. Waiting for it to be added can be worth it for the right model - but verify the model is on track to be approved.
The "lock in 2026" rule of thumb
For most WA homeowners with existing solar and decent evening consumption: install now. The federal step-down from 2026 to 2027 alone is ~$570 - bigger than any plausible installer pricing drop in 12 months. The state rebate is at maximum value. And the longer you wait, the more rebate dollars you're walking past.
Are there future rebates that might replace this?
Probably yes - but not at this scale. The Cheaper Home Batteries Program was a one-off measure to accelerate battery adoption while the federal Renewable Energy Target ramped down. Replacement schemes (if they appear) are likely to be narrower in scope and smaller in subsidy. There's no political signal in 2026 that a bigger battery rebate is coming after 2030.